What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?

Knowing the range of expectations is important, but the distribution of forecasts is another key input in market's reaction

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect.

In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.

The reaction to data is going to be tricky because there could be something for everyone today.

A bad report could strengthen growth concerns and extend the risk-off sentiment.

At the same time, it could also lead to a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations and support risk assets on a less hawkish Fed.

In the current context, I would say the former is more probable.

In this case, we might see a hawkish repricing that could weigh further on risk assets.

But, good data could also trigger a relief rally on easing growth concerns.

I guess the market would like to see good data, just not too hot.

From investingLive